As the 2022 NFL season approaches, many fantasy football players are researching the top picks and sleepers for their drafts. While studying the projected performers is a crucial step, looking beyond the headlines and identifying divisional dark horses can give you an edge over your league-mates.
Divisional dark horses refer to players on teams within your fantasy league's divisions who may not be receiving much attention from analysts or the general public. These are the players who fly under the radar and often come at a lower cost on draft day.
To help you identify these potential value picks, focus on players with upgraded roles, new offensive schemes, improved team situations, and promising preseason performances.
Players with new or expanded responsibilities within their offense can be fantastic dark horse candidates. These may include a young running back inheriting the starting job, a wide receiver stepping into a WR1 role, or a tight end finally getting the targets he deserves.
One example from 2021 was Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson Jr., who emerged as the team's workhorse when Cam Akers was lost for the season. Henderson's preseason draft position (ADP) was late-second round at best, but his performance in a featured role (1,085 total yards, 14 touchdowns) made him a crucial piece of fantasy championship teams.
Another 2021 notable was Green Bay Packers wideout Randall Cobb, who returned to the team after a season with the Texans and Texans. Cobb, once a top target for Aaron Rodgers, was a popular waiver-wire addition and late-round value pick. Cobb finished the season as a top-25 wideout in fantasy points scored.
Another area to focus on is players entering new offensive schemes that may better suit their skills. This could lead to an uptick in production and increased fantasy value.
Offenses employing play-callers and schemes tailored to their weapons can unlock potential that might have been previously hidden. An example in 2021 is the Pittsburgh Steelers' offensive revamp under new coordinator Matt Canada. Running back Najee Harris flourished in Canada's hybrid ground-and-air system. With a unique, never-see-before approach, Harris was a force to be reckoned with.
To find hidden gems in new offenses, look for players who could thrive within the scheme or benefit from a coaching change. When a coaching staff has a lengthy history of working with a position group, pay attention. For example, new Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy spent several seasons as the running backs coach for then-coach Andy Reid. In 2021, he and Reid presided over a historically-good Chiefs offense.
Changes within a franchise's roster or front office can impact fantasy value. Pay attention to rookies making an immediate impact, positional upgrades via free agency, and coaching changes. A change in culture can have a ripple effect throughout a team's roster.
Take the 2021 Atlanta Falcons as an example. In the post-Matt Ryan era, the Falcons struggled and made several roster moves that negatively impacted their fantasy options. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions bolstered their running game by adding Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift, which led to an unexpectedly productive duo.
Keep an eye on the 2022 Indianapolis Colts after acquiring quarterback Matt Ryan. With a veteran signal-caller under center and an improved offensive line, fantasy players should look carefully at Colts wideouts like Michael Pittman Jr. and running back Jonathan Taylor, who had breakout seasons in 2021.
While preseason performance should not be the sole determining factor when choosing a dark horse, it can provide valuable insight. Players and coaches may not reveal their entire playbook, but there are still ways to analyze.
Look at opportunities. Specifically, how are coaches distributing targets or snaps among players? If a player is leading the charge in snaps, this could be a positive sign.
Watch players' comfort with the offensive scheme. Are they making rapid decisions and moving fluidly? Positive preseason performances can indicate a player's confidence in the offense and familiarity with their teammates, giving you a valuable clue about the upcoming season.
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